Formality and innovation in being a presidential candidate (1)
 
2005-09-29 07:14:50
By Ani Jozeni

	Tanzania presidential candidates Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete(CCM) and Augustine Mrema (TLP).

While the diplomatic community is silently, and in the Western media not so discreetly, entirely certain of whom they will be treating as next President of the United Republic, this wisdom is rather scarce within the country.

No one has ventured to say it loudly and clearly as to a clear eventuality during the campaign period, though it was touched on at the beginning, when CCM picked its contender, to wild public applause.

A late July issue of the Financial Times of London treated CCM contender, Foreign Minister Jakaya Kikwete, as ’president in waiting,’which would rile plenty of people if said locally.

There is a studied reticence of making his election to the presidency, and indeed some candidates (notably Dr. Emmanuel Makaidi of the NLD and Augustine Mrema BA of TLP) have castigated the bishops (of various denominations) for having endorsed Kikwete in advance.

At most though they acknowledged public excitement.

That there is no longer an obvious chant about the CCM candidate having been elected in advance, it still remains that evaluating the chances of any other candidate is problematic.

For once, nearly all other parties have been losing members in public meetings or rallies during the candidateís tour of the regions.

Fewer or none of CCM members have been giving cards to opposition candidates, though the turnout to meetings is usually good.

Evaluating the chances of being elected for JK as he is popularly known in part also a reminder of his youth inspiration JKN is both easy and difficult.

Saying he will win is rather easy but putting up some kind of margin is different, as no direct study has been made to that effect.

In 1995 the University political research outfit, REDET conducted an extensive survey and predicted that the ruling party would win by 70 per cent in the rural areas.

That was entirely correct, but urban pressure brought the final tally to 62.5 per cent of the total.

Mapping out everybodyís or indeed anyoneís chances if partly an evaluation of the stock of political capital, the goodwill in (civil) society that each candidate exhibits.

Such a task can be difficult unless it is in some way clear what social concerns, and thus groups, such a candidate might represent, and why those who support him will by some reason depart from a winning candidate, say the CCM candidate.

And is this widening, say since 1995?

One major difference between 1995 and 2005 (as in the past general election the president was an incumbent, thus with a clear advantage over contestants in a more intense manner) is the absence of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere.

In 1995 he was pivotal to the electorateís endorsement of Benjamin Mkapa, over and above the loud change candidacy of former Interior Minister Augustine Mrema. Without Mwalimu\’s aid, the balance would be tilted.

Alternatively, the techniques that could be used to obtain CCM continuation in office would be less savory than was the case, though not without intense mishaps.

The voting in Dar es Salaam was marred all the way, voting materials failing to arrive at Manzese at the very core of the city, or five kilometers along the main road.

Yet the same materials arrived on time in most rural constituencies, even the farthest from district or trunk roads.

In comparison with 1995, there isn\’t as much of a change constituency at the moment, in which case projecting the victory of the CCM candidate isn\’t as hazardous as it would by and large appear.

The level of confidence in certain quarters is quite high, though in certain cases without actual grounding, that is, from evidence that critics may appreciate, or say the general public.

But in some core constituencies the candidates\’ popularity may hold.

One unwritten rule about Tanzania\’s presidential elections, all the way since 1965, is that there is about 95 per cent of voters who support the president, during the first 15 years, or three elections, Mwalimu Nyerere.

There was a five per cent no vote which formed the core of opposition politics when it came up in the early 1990s, especially in the Lake zone region of Shinyanga.

Its ethic affinities with Tabora and Mwanza also slightly aided.

The reason for this traditional no vote has never been clearly elucidated, but one likely element is the traumatism of co-operative unions, and the national role of its leaders (etc).

This constituency, more than the urban traumas of the trade unions, has accounted for opinion in rural areas, affinities of the ruling party and village notables, etc.

It can be said that ’opposition”’ is generally how innovations at the top (political parties) exploit this core sentiment, of a mixture of expectations, deceptions and ambitions, local and national.

• SOURCE: Guardian