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Polls postponement will affect opposition winning chances
2005-10-30 07:15:16
By Hilal K. Sued
When giving judgement on a ruling rejecting a petition filed by a group of opposition parties seeking the nullification of the whole elections conducted countrywide in 1995 due to chaotic polling in the Dar es Salaam region, High Court Judge, Josephat Mackanja, said that in as much as the Court might sympathise with what had happened, it must also be acknowledged that elections were a very expensive undertaking.
So that was it. The petition, filed under a certificate of emergency and read by one of the country’s eminent human rights lawyers, the (then) up and coming political firebrand named Masumbuko Lwamwai, collapsed.
It did not even stand in the ensuing appeal at the Court of Appeal.
Later Lamwai defected from the then formidable NCCR-Mageuzi to the ruling party.
So the elections, for the Dar es Salaam region only, were pushed back to mid-November of that year.
And following the crumble of the petition, the opposition was hit by a huge split on the proposed threat to boycott the election rerun for the Dar es Salaam region.
It is perhaps significant, if not relevant, to also recall that Lamwai, himself a Parliamentary candidate for Ubungo constituency, broke ranks with the mainstream opposition stand that called for a boycott and ran, eventually winning the seat.
Call it Nature, Fate, Destiny, Fortune, all these are names of the one and selfsame God, said Seneca, the 1st Century AD Roman philosopher-cum-politician.
In other words, who shall shut out Fate? It is not an eagle, it creeps like a rat, and has two ways of crushing us — by refusing our wishes and by fulfilling them.
Tanzanians woke up on Friday trying to come to grips with what has befallen them following the death of the CHADEMA presidential running mate, Jumbe Rajab Jumbe which has prompted the Union elections that had been slated for today to be pushed forward to December 18.
No doubt it was the last thing they wanted, let alone expected.
As the Election Day was drawing near, many resorted to calls for prayers for peace and stability during the elections.
In fact win or lose, we all hoped to go shopping after the exercise. Aren’t peaceful elections supposed to end so?
Whichever way one considers the tragedy, it stands to have far reaching implications.
It is a huge blow, not only in financial terms, but also even on the competing political parties, as it stands to affect the outcome of the polls themselves.
This of course is to say nothing of a constitutional crisis this may bring up.
Critics are already questioning whether it was right to postpone the parliamentary elections as well, as the tragedy only affected the presidential race.
They are also wondering why the long postponement, of nearly two months, while a week or so after 21 days would have sufficed.
However, the biggest blow is financial. It means the electoral body (NEC) has to be provided with an extra budget to cover the printing of fresh ballot papers and for payment of the emoluments to some personnel it had hired.
So far the government has spent about 93bn/- on the elections, a big chunk of it is donor money. It is not known how much more is needed due to the postponement.
Many also think that the Constitution, and other relevant legislation, have to be amended to avert such costs to a poor country like Tanzania.
The necessity for a presidential candidate to be voted with his/her running mate in one ballot is the one that has to be looked into.
It is also appropriate to analyse the implications of this postponement, especially on the competing political parties and candidates.
I think that the postponement will adversely affect the financially squeezed opposition parties more than the ruling party, which appears to have limitless funds.
Many opposition parties must have by now exhausted all their campaign funds, and an extra nearly two months of campaigning is no doubt seen as a nightmare.
Many of their candidates, parliamentary and civic, had campaigned with today’s date in sight and hence their funding synchronised as such.
It now means that they have to sit back and watch their opponents in the ruling party continue to campaign, through fair and unfair means.
I think NEC should have been fair by stopping all the campaigns now until after the CHADEMA’s new running mate is nominated.
There is also the question of Zanzibar. It has been decided that the elections in Zanzibar, except those for the Union president and Members of Parliament would go on as planned, that is today.
It had always been said that it is unwise to hold Union and Isles elections on the same day.
After all, it is against the stipulations contained in the Zanzibar Constitution.
The forcing of both elections on one day, as insisted by the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) and the Zanzibar Government is seen to be out of some exigencies of partisan politics rather than any other consideration.
In my opinion, it appears that the ruling party on that side of the Union thrives on controversies and tensions.
It must be so, otherwise why should each voter in Zanzibar be forced to cast five ballots on election day, that may take him/her nearly 20 minutes to do so?
Everyone, except ZEC and SMZ, can clearly see that this is bad for the politically volatile islands, as it can be avoided.
Why increase hardships and tension to an already electrified political atmosphere?
However, in the first multiparty elections of 1995, the two elections were held on different dates, starting with those of the Isles, which were held a week earlier than those for the Union.
Everything went on smoothly on voting day in Zanzibar and the controversy only erupted during the counting of votes and announcement of the results.
In the 2000 elections, the two elections were slated to be held on the same day, but it wasn’t really so.
In Zanzibar, ZEC did what its Union counterpart, NEC, did to the Dar es Salaam Region in 1995, failing to take election material to polling stations in time with many of them (polling centres) opening very late.
There was little time for all voters, each of who was required to cast five ballots, to vote.
Chaos ensued and the elections were postponed to another day and the opposition CUF boycotted the rerun.
It is difficult not to think that the strategy was pre-planned.
Now this year, it appears that Fate again has its hand on Tanzania’s elections.
The two elections will not be held on the same day. For this, there is every reason for Zanzibaris to sigh with relief.
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