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Why resolving Z’bar issues is an inevitable two-way traffic
2006-11-12 09:57:24
By Ani Jozeni
Varying ways of testing the temperature of solving Union dusputes were plentiful over the previous week as speculations and public statements paraded before the eyes of viewers in newspaper headlines.
At least two were noticeable, not only as important developments in their particular aspects of sorting out Union questions, but also as indicators of how sentiments are developing in various directions, in Zanzibar as well as on the Mainland. Where finally the dust settles and a clear picture of CCM positions emerges is unclear.
The first indication emerged from the Mainland, that well informed sources indicate that President Jakaya Kikwete is nearing fatigue with dialogue conducted with ’conservative’ CCM leaders in Zanzibar, as they don’t stand any revision to the victory in last year’s polls.
That however is the minimum that one needs to do so that some accomodation is made of opposition demands before the situation gets out of hand, as it is no longer an issue of CUF leadership positions. It is a matter of fulfilling the president’s own election vows.
Were it that it is a promise by the opposition party leadership that there will be changes and they aren’t in all evidence about to take place, it would be one thing.
But to rally around the now restless youths that we have been cheated again about something being done to resolve the stalemate is another, as it altogether convincing and sure of winning.
It will be up to the president to make sure that he doesn’t lose face, and on the basis of changes he has been orchestrating, it is unlikely he sits back as of old and just sends the police.
That is why a problem is emerging with ’conservatives’ in the sense that they have full confidence in the nearly unhelpful propaganda line that the polls are over, and issues relating to polls need to wait for another five years for CUF to try its chance again.
That means they will be held under the same conditions to ensure another CCM victory, since the level of manipulation was high by any standards, if one compares rules of polling on the Isles and on the Mainland. Here one votes from anywhere, without a five year residence rule.
CCM isn’t in a position to discuss trafficking of people during the polling, nor for that matter what difference it made that uniformed soldiers many of whom were on a tour of duty for keeping the peace, also joined the queues to have their say as to who is the better candidate for Representative, etc. It is this situation which the phase ’polls are over’ summarizes, that whatever methods were used, the matter cannot be discussed as it is out of place.
Foreign observer missions said it was free and fair, and that should suit simply everybody.
There is no doubt that the Union president will have a tough time seeking to shift the CCM Isles leadership from that position, as it is a learned sentiment or judgement uniting the entire leadership.
If anything, their own concerns are now directed elsewhere rather than on the polls issue, a tactic which was used earlier, that if one wishes to divide Zanzibaris on democracy, they come up with OIC, if perhaps ASP is a bit outdated.
It is also evident that the leader of the OIC fringe is President Amani Karume himself, thus a consensual view.
To a casual observer or those within CCM, this new demand - as to Zanzibar picking up its refused observer status at the Organisation of Islamic Conference - complicates the situation as it adds to problems that we though we were done with.
It is also likely to lead to a resurgence of the ’Tanganyika’ government issue, a situation that plays into the hands of Zanzibaris, for then the solution is to silence dissidence on both sides, in effect leaving the status quo intact. Briefly, if JK pushes the reform issue on the Isles, it seeks OIC status.
On another hand however, it provides an indication as to how the Isles identity needs to be rectified within the Union, and democratized at the same time.
This aspect about OIC unites both CCM and CUF supporters and puts Union authorities in a limbo, and by extension, seeks to cultivate a powerful wave on the Mainland in support of an Isles presence in the OIC.
It would with certain respects also help other organizations on the Mainland make use of contacts for activities that can be assisted on the basis of observer membership.
Part of the problem of course is that neither the Mainland nor Isles economy is as yet dynamic enough to feel free of external pressures to join a club of rich countries (oil producers) which can make a special effort of assisting Zanzibar.
The reason for Isles backwardness, like the Mainland, is outdated land ownership policies designed to keep out immigrant populations if local residents had freehold titles to plots of land, and could freely sell.
Thus no foreign capital flows to assets on land, but tourism or extractive industries.
But changing land policy and encouraging investment to reduce pressures to join OIC isn’t the framework on which the Union issues will be solved, and instead pressures to benefit by pushing Isles singularity will continue.
That is where the president could meet the Isles halfway, that they agree to democratize - abandon tricks and unequal regulations in registration for polls - and form a coalition government, in exchange for an observer status in OIC as well as an own seat in the East African Community.
But then chances are that with Karume’s third term bid, the Isles are planning splitting off, by making even negotiation virtually impossible.
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